Blog ECB Hikes Rates, With More to Come We expect the European Central Bank to continue aggressively hiking rates this year, though moderating from the 75-basis-point level.
We believe the European Central Bank (ECB) will aim to bring its interest rates into neutral territory reasonably quickly following its decision to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) at its September meeting. The policy rate hike means the deposit facility rate now stands at 0.75%, halfway to most estimates for where a neutral policy stance will be in the long run (at 1.5%). At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said there will be more rate hikes to come, and that the ECB currently doesn’t have a strong view on the end point of the interest rate journey. Lagarde also made clear that quantitative tightening will be on the agenda only at a later stage of the policy normalisation cycle. She added that the ECB is absolutely determined to bring inflation back to target and the Governing Council doesn’t want inflation expectations to de-anchor, and risk any second-round effects taking hold. The market took note, with interest rates moving higher during the press conference, and the terminal policy rate repricing from around 2.15% to 2.25%. How restrictive will the ECB be? More relevant than the precise journey of rate hikes will be the destination. ECB chief economist Philip Lane recently reiterated that cyclical factors may require policy rates to move above or below neutral in order for inflation to stabilise at target. There remains considerable uncertainty where a neutral policy rate for the euro area might be, but around 1.5% in nominal terms seems reasonable, especially in comparison to other developed market jurisdictions such as the U.K. or U.S. Current market pricing therefore suggests somewhat restrictive territory for the ECB, with a peak policy rate of 2.25% around the middle of next year. In line with its new meeting-by-meeting approach, the ECB did not provide much guidance regarding the potential destination of interest rates. But President Lagarde indicated that a neutral policy setting might not be appropriate in all conditions, particularly if it is faced with high spot inflation that, as we have said, would threaten to de-anchor medium-term inflation expectations and increase the risk of second-round effects. Plumbing issues Normalizing policy rates, in the context of €4.5 trillion excess liquidity and collateral scarcity, risks impairing the monetary policy transmission. Hence why the market was eagerly awaiting guidance on a number of items, such as bank excess reserve remuneration and the remuneration of government deposits at the central bank. With its decision to remunerate bank excess reserves at the deposit facility rate and temporarily suspend the 0% cap on the remuneration of government deposits, the ECB managed to alleviate concerns about a wave of demand for front-end high quality collateral amid limited supply. We expect the ECB to continue exploring options to better control money market rates, potentially along the lines of the Fed’s reverse repo facility. Medium-term options include a new secured or unsecured vehicle available to market participants without access to the ECB’s deposit facility, or large-scale issuance of very short-term ECB debt certificates. The medium-term path of monetary policy We believe the ECB will be reluctant to materially slow the pace of rate hikes until the peak in inflation is in the rearview mirror. Having started hikes higher than the traditional 25-bps increment, there appears little reason to change that pace significantly while the monetary policy stance remains accommodative. We believe the ECB will aim to bring its policy rates into neutral territory reasonably quickly, and expect additional 50-bps policy rate hikes in October and December as a result. After that, we expect 25-bps increments next year as the hiking cycle pivots more decisively from policy normalisation to policy tightening. Please visit our Inflation and Interest Rates page for further insights on these key themes for investors. Konstantin Veit is a portfolio manager based in London and a regular contributor to the PIMCO blog.
Economic Outlook Facing the Music: Challenges and Opportunities in Today’s Commercial Real Estate Market Embracing resilience in CRE amid unprecedented challenges
Economic and Market Commentary Major Shakeup in U.S. Election Diminishes Odds of a Republican Sweep With Vice President Kamala Harris likely to be the Democratic nominee, the race for the White House has shifted and congressional Democratic prospects have improved.
Economic and Market Commentary Developed Market Public Debt: Risks and Realities In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Economic and Market Commentary ECB: Next Stop, September While the European Central Bank kept policy rates unchanged, the next cut is likely to be delivered soon.
Economic and Market Commentary June CPI Marks Progress Along the Last Mile to Inflation Target A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
Economic and Market Commentary Navigating Public and Private Credit Markets: Liquidity, Risk, and Return Potential Comparing public fixed income and private credit markets involves weighing factors related to liquidity, transparency, credit quality, risk premium, and opportunity costs.
Economic and Market Commentary Fed Policy: One Month of Good Data Is Not Enough Good news on U.S. inflation in May did not sway the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could come sooner.
Blog ECB: Next Stop, June While market pricing looks more reasonable, European Central Bank rate cuts, which could commence in June, are unlikely to be delivered as aggressively as the market expects in 2024.
Blog ECB Firmly on Hold While interest rates have presumably peaked, we remain skeptical that rate cuts will be delivered as forcefully as the market expects.
Blog ECB Remains Attentive and Focused While the ECB is unlikely to raise rates further, we remain skeptical that it will deliver rate cuts as early as the market expects.