Putting Markets in Perspective


In 2019, PIMCO expects global economies to converge lower toward a GDP growth rate of 2.75%–3.25%.

Economy

PIMCO’s outlook for major economies over the next six to twelve months

  • Global

    Outlook

    Expect the global expansion to continue throughout the year, but at a slower pace.

    Implications

    Prepare for higher uncertainty by considering diversifying portfolios and positioning for late-cycle dynamics.

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  • U.S.

    Outlook

    Long-lived expansion could carry on if major policy mistakes are avoided.

    Implications

    To take advantage of late-cycle dynamics, consider commodities or other inflation-linked assets.

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  • Europe

    Outlook

    Political risks and trade war fears have soured sentiment – and confidence.

    Implications

    Take a cautious view of the eurozone and limit exposure to sectors that rely on central bank support.

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  • Emerging Markets

    Outlook

    Stronger fundamentals provide ballast against external shocks.

    Implications

    Pay attention to risks on a country-by-country basis to find pockets of opportunity.

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Financial Markets

PIMCO’s outlook for key economies and markets and opportunities for investors to consider.

  • Fixed Income

    Outlook

    Rates are likely to remain range-bound, while higher yields offer benefits.

    Implications

    Core bonds offer a compelling way to diversify equity exposure against late-cycle headwinds.

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  • Equities

    Outlook

    Recent equity market volatility is understandably unnerving – and normal.

    Implications

    Re-evaluate equity allocations to ensure proper diversification and help smooth returns.

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  • Short-term

    Outlook

    Now may be the time to position for defense – and offense – with short-term allocations.

    Implications

    Short-term strategies may be positioned to enhance yield without sacrificing capital preservation.

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  • Credit

    Outlook

    As margin for error narrows, managing idiosyncratic risk is more important than ever.

    Implications

    Careful credit selection – and experience – may offer resilience when the cycle turns.

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